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Farmers should fear climate change by Paul Beingessner
(Tuesday, Aug. 19, 2003 -- CropChoice guest commentary) -- As the temperature reaches into the thirties for the umpteenth day in a row, and the sweat rolls off my forehead onto the computer keyboard, it seems a good time to examine the issue of global warming. While there is a lot of controversy over the subject in some circles, it is much easier
to believe in it while half the world swelters under an extraordinary
heat wave. And if we think it's hot on the Canadian prairies, consider
France where the hot weather has claimed 3,000 lives.
Heat waves are not unusual of course, but no one around here can
remember a spell this intense or long lasting. As a matter of fact, no
one can remember a growing season with so little rain either. Those who
believe global climate change is upon us will point to this as sure
evidence for their view. Those on the other side of the argument will
say that you can't argue with certainty that the climate is changing
from the evidence of a few years.
Both statements are true of course. The fact that the last decade has
had eight or nine of the hottest years in weather recording history is
evidence that the climate is heating up. It is evidence, but it is not
proof, so the naysayers are also correct. With only 150 years of weather
records, not much is certain.
But there is irrefutable evidence that human activity is causing major
changes. Scientists have examined Arctic ice cores that date back
420,000 years. These show that the amounts of two greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, methane and carbon dioxide, have risen in the last
century to levels that are unprecedented. Methane had never exceeded 750
parts per billion in that 420,000 year period. Today, it is at 1,700
parts per billion.
There are other measurable changes. Prairie growing seasons have
lengthened by 12 days since 1960. The Arctic ice cap is only half as
thick as it was in 1970, and has shrunk in summer area by 40 percent. A
further result is a rise in sea levels near the equator by 20
centimeters since 1980. There are still a few scientists that will argue
there is little evidence of human-caused climate change, but not very
many.
Most governments around the world accept that humans have altered the
climate. Hence the Kyoto Accord that is supposed to do something about
it. The problem seems to be that, doing something usually means
impacting the lifestyles of the world largest energy consumers and that
is where the brick wall is encountered. That explains, for example, why
American President George Bush can look straight into the camera and
deny that the climate is changing. It seems that one's views of the
science of climate change are mostly determined by the perceived
economic impact.
Farmers have been equally prone to adopting the Bush attitude. Letters
in newspapers still appear denouncing Kyoto as a greenie subversive
plot. The odd thing is that some farmers appear to fear efforts to halt
climate change more than they fear climate change itself. For the
prairies, climate change models predict that the weather of the last few
years will become more and more frequent. If that is true, areas that
currently sustain annual cropping will become dry grasslands and some
dry grasslands, like those in southern Saskatchewan and Alberta, will
become deserts. While precipitation may increase somewhat in some areas,
temperature increases will mean less available moisture over all.
The result will be severe damage to the economies of these regions.
Production will decrease, populations fall even further, land values
will decline dramatically, and the hated grasshoppers will become a more
permanent feature. Milder winters will mean new insect pests and
diseases will invade. The entire ecosystem will change, not just plants
and trees, but also insects, animals birds and diseases. While new crop
varieties and techniques may counter this to some extent, you can't grow
crops on the 0.3 inches of rain we received since ours were planted in
the spring.
The evidence for ecosystem change is already all around us. Ask the
farmers in northern Saskatchewan who have never before encountered the
plague of grasshoppers they now have to contend with, or Inuit in the
high Arctic who now see robins in the spring.
Given this, it seems apparent that farmers and the prairie economy
should fear climate change a great deal more than they fear the cost of
working to halt it. When we are bombarded by politicians and industry
with the potential costs of reducing energy consumption and using less
fossil fuels, we should also consider the economic costs that climate
change is bringing and will bring. Farmers, more than anyone, should be
aware of and concerned about this.
(c) Paul Beingessner (306) 868-4734 phone, 868-2009 fax
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